logo
Identify & Quantify
Macro-Energy-ESG Risk

Who ?- Users of MEF Services:

Manchester Economic Forecasting

green iguana

Exporters/SMEs

Quantify Global Demand/Cost Risks
Using MEF's mGEM model, we start from Official macro/budget announcements as a central economic forecast projection or baseline. MEF can then scenario-test critical official assumptions (eg interest/exchange rates) of that baseline that impact a client's specific business areas to quantify de-facto risk exposure to the global economy
Each quarter, MEF produces several,highly-relevant, pre-configured macro scenarios which cover significant current areas of both macro and financial risk at Global and/or UK levels. MEF's riskNZ App contains a number of these, pre-configured scenarios that explore "shocks" to key exogenous/policy inputs (eg US Federal Funds interest rate) to quantify sensitivities of official Economic/Energy forecasts. riskNZ contains the animated country response output charts & Global, geographic heatmaps to help visualise & interpret scenario impacts & spillovers. The "Macro-Map", "Links-Trade" and "Links-Macro" are the most relevant Tabs in riskNZ for Exporters/SMEs. MEF can also make its pre-run scenario outputs available for clients who simply wish to access fully-consistent globally drivers of their own in-house, domain-level, scenario analysis
MEF can tailor its bespoke scenario service to serve clients who also wish to commission proprietory models that forecast their specific domains/markets. The client will then typically own the bespoke model, but it is built, run & maintained by MEF, thereby enabling mGEM macro scenarios outputs can be seamlessly fed into it, if required. MEF can also construct SME-specific weighted indices of overall export/demand prospects across all the SME's key export markets. mGEM shocks at a global/national level can then be translated into market-specific impacts for customised SME risk analysis.
green iguana

Investment/Fund Managers

Explore Portfolio/Esg Risk
Using MEF's finGEM and enGEM models, we can explore both macro, technology and (Green) policy shocks impacting both investment returns and broader global trajectories to Net Zero carbon. Such Portfolio "stress-tests" also reveal the related Corporate winners/losers - and equity valuations - in the global energy transition to 2050.
.MEF's pre-run scenarios can assist investment committees and other investment professionals & wealth managers in seeking to quantify Portfolio exposure in a highly uncertain global economy facing multiple, ongoing shocks. The riskNZ App allows users to explore these scenarios & the shock-impacts on typical investment Portfolios and/or upload their own Portfolio for more direct stress-testing. It also allows users to inspect latest Esg ratings for typical investment portfolios (eg 60:40 Equity:Bonds) and the ability to input their own Portfolio asset allocation across Countries, Assets & Sectors to obtain an instant Esg-rating
MEF can construct customised, satellite Portfolio models with explicit macro-financial linkages to key drivers variables in the MEF model suite; this enables the modelling & direct quanfitication of portfolio returns risk from macro/energy shocks. MEF can also ESG-rate Funds by mapping Country-Sector exposure of underlying investments to the GHG intensities in MEF models -we call this an "Esg" Fund rating as it focuses on "hard" Emissions/Energy data for "E"
green iguana

Energy/Emissions Analysts

Test Emissions-Macro Sensitivities
Energy/Emissions forecasts are often based on simplistic "straight-line" assumptions about global economic activity. Using MEF's iGEM and eGEM models, we can derive "bottom-up" (ie adjusted for industry-mix) forecasts & scenarios for Energy/Emissions that are fully consistent with more realistic mGEM forecast/scenario pathways.
Macroeconomic and/or GreenTech scenario analysis is essential to explore huge uncertainties in (global) economic & technological pathways to 2050 Output growth dominated by GHG-intensive sectors will obviously imply higher national emissions than otherwise - so understanding the industrial mix of output evolution is crucial for Net Zero analysis/predictions. iGEM allows the feed-through of mGEM global/national shocks to 12 industrial sectors across the majority of the 53 economies/zones covered by mGEM. MEF's riskNZ App can also explore impacts of (Global) macro scenarios on Corporate decarbonisation trajectories relative to sectoral Carbon Intensity budgets see "GHG-Firms" Tab
MEF can construct customised client models that are driven by by either macro and/or industrial-sector outputs from MEF's model suite. Energy/Emissions analysts can then ensure their 2050 pathways are fully consistent with realistic, global, macroeconomic driver variables; and that the latter drivers can then be fully "stress-tested" in a consistent way using bespoke scenario analysis.
green iguana

Higher Education Institutions

Real World Risk Models/Tools/Apps
riskNZ App brings Business, Investment and ESG risk/scenario analysis to the classroom - from undergraduate, postgrad/MBA to Executive Education. Its fully customisable to courses across Economics, Business/Finance, Geography/Climate, Econometrics/Data Science - a key data tool for lectures and (self-directed) student tutorials.
riskNZ App is a front-end to MEF's model suite that is configurable for subject area deployment[; a free lite version of the App is available for download/assessment: - Sign Up Here The full App enables students to be fully grounded in applied data awareness, policy trade-offs and operation of smart scenario analysis; it helps fills the gap in most (theory-dominated) course units in Economics, Business & Finance. In this way, students are prepared in advance with the applied skills/tools needed to assist in Carbon transformation in their future careers.
MEF has a long history of devising and delivering custom education courses at University/CPD qualifications. It can bring business-level applied risk tools into the classroom. Custom programs designed around applied business risk tools - such as riskNZ - help to maximise Macro/Emissions & ESG awareness among Economics, Finance & MBA students. Whilst essential for the applied skills of (post)graduates, riskNZ is ideal for CPD & staff training up-skilling. It can be readily deployed in remote-learning environments too and integrated with Blackboard, Moodle & other ILEs.