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Identify & Quantify
Macro-Energy-ESG Risk

What? - Risk Quantification Tools to aid Mitigation

Manchester Economic Forecasting

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Pre-run scenarios

Test Sensitivities - Model-Based Scenarios
Using mGEM , we overlay latest Official macro/budget projections (eg from OBR, IMF, OECD) as a central forecast baseline. And users of MEF Apps - such as riskNZ - can view the scenario testing of such official projections to quantify risks around the key drivers of their business activity across Economies, Industries, Energy-Use, GHG Emissions and Financial investments/Assets.
Online DIY scenarios allow all key exogenous/other inputs (eg Interest or Tax rates) to be changed to explore sensitivities of official forecasts. Animated country output charts & Global, geographic map-impacts help understand & visualise scenario impacts. These are particularly useful for the teaching of applied Economics/Globalisation in the University or CPD classroom. Visualising the impacts of MEF Pre-run scenarios are available in all the subject Tabs in the riskNZ App
MEF's pre-configured scenarios will normally be wide-ranging enough to satisfy most users of such macroeconomic sensitivity. Although available mainly via MEF Apps - such as riskNZ - such scenario outputs are also available to consultancy clients to drive their own in-house analysis. Many firms/analysts need to be aware (and quantify impacts of) global uncertainties to business operations, but do not wish to carry the overhead of running global economic/energy models
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Bespoke - Scenarios & Models

Quantify Macro, Energy & Portfolio Risk
Some users need to explore & quantify specific risk concerns eg the plausibility of some official forecast assumptions (eg for Interest or Tax rates). Using the wide coverage of the MEF model suite, we are usually able to capture/model most specialist risk requirements. If not, with its Bespoke services, MEF can build customised, specialist models for clients that take external scenario drivers (eg from MEF's global modal suite) to give globally-consistent results
Some clients will need to move beyond MEF's pre-configured Macroeconomic/Energy scenarios in order to conduct more specialised risk analysis & quantification. Perhaps this is simply to obtain/inspect alternative (Global) macro outturns or to act as drivers for the client's own free-standing models.

[SAI CASE STUDY LINK]
Given sufficient domain-level data exists, MEF can estimate (structural) models for clients that are either free-standing or recursively-driven by outputs from MEF's global model suite. This allows client's own risk scenario/analysis to be fully-consistent with Global/national economic drivers. In principle, any client model can be constructed as along as there is sufficient domain-level backdata and there are plausible driver variables covered in MEF's model suite that can be formally tested in regression analysis.
By deploying both the iGEM & eGEM model modules, MEF can construct unique "hard-data" ESG measures - these are referred to as "Esg" as they focus on more measurable & objective measures of Carbon intensity - namely GHG Emissions. By analysing the Country-Sector exposure of the allocated assets, MEF can create a weighted sum of emissions exposure for a particular fund or Portfolio. This also allows MEF to then explore the impacts of various GreenTech shocks (eg a surprise, "early" diffusion of commercial Nuclear Fusion) on national Energy sectors.
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riskNZ App - for Business & Education

Quantify Macro Risks to Net Zero
Economic activity drives GHG emissions and there will be macroeconomic/policy/technology shocks en route to "Net Zero" eg interest rate gyrations, currency/inflation, Nuclear fusion, etc. MEF’s riskNZ App explores & quantifies such shock impacts to 2050 using pre-configured Macro/Energy forecast scenarios. The App is fully configurable and can be deployed in both University/Educational and Business/CPD contexts - see Tab list below:
Tab Name Subject Area
MacroMap* see how scenarios impact national & Global macroeconomies via impact charts/heatmaps
Sunburst* see Country composition of key Global Macro Variables (eg Global GDP share)
Trade view underlying model trade linkages explaining global shock transmissions behind scenarios
mGEM view underlying model linkages explaining shock transmissions behind scenarios + global trade links
EnergyMap* see how macroeconomic scenarios impact national & Global Energy variables via impacts charts & heatmaps
Sunburst look at Country composition of Global Energy Demand by Country/Use-sector and to 2050.
PieLine* drilldown into the composition of Global Energy Demand/Generation by Country/Use-sector and to 2050
GHGMap* see how scenarios impact national & Global environmental outcomes via impact charts/heatmaps
Sunburst gain overview of climate crisis challenge; view comparative GHG emissions by country and sector
Sectors* drilldown into the composition of overall GHG emissions by GHG gas and Country, Sector, Firm to 2050
Firms* Carbon Intensity data/projections to 2050 for high emissions firms by Sector & Country (TPI Data)
Montecarlo* explore risk around GHG emission trajectories to 2050
ESGrateDIY* specify user portfolio asset allocation to generate a dynamic Esg rating to 2050
ESG-Portfolio* see how scenarios impact financial portfolio ESG ratings with a Montecarlo risk fan overlay
Portfolio* see how scenarios impact financial portfolio returns with a Montecarlo risk fan overlay
MCQ see relevant textbook chapter multiple-choice questions (MCQ) that relate to the selected scenario
Glossary an interactive, responsive Glossary of all economic, financial & environmental/ESG terms
* = have access to pre-configured scenarios to explore/quantify risk
riskNZ provides access to historical data & forecasts/scenarios to 2050 across global macroeconomic, climate, & energy variables via interactive, downloadable charts/maps for use in DIY client reports etc; riskNZ can be tailored for business/financial risk analysis, marketing & HE/CPD uses.
ESG authenticity is also crucial for Fund Management but amid much “greenwashing” limited tools exist to aid financial professionals/educators to understand, assess, implement and communicate strategies. MEF's riskNZ App “stress-tests” official climate/Net Zero projections using pre-configured (global) macroeconomic scenarios to illustrate alternative emissions pathways; it illustrates hard data on ESG ie which Countries, Sectors, Firms are key GHG emitters & their likely emissions trajectories to 2050.