How? - MEF Global Models & Apps
Manchester Economic Forecasting
mGEM-Global Macroeconomic Model
Explore Known-Unknowns with mGEM
MEF's core model is mGEM but it has been extended with specialist add-on modules for Industrial Sectors (iGEM),
Energy Use/Generation (enGEM), GHG emissions (eGEM) and Portfolio returns/ESG (finGEM) and Global Liquidity(gliGEM). Some users will be only interested in quantifying (Global)
macroeconomic risks but the add-on modules allow this to extend to scenario analysis across Industry-mix, Energy, GHG Emissions and Finance/Liquidity flows.
Country Coverage - mGEM Macro Model
Zone | Coverage |
---|---|
G7 | US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, UK |
Other OECD | Australia, Austria, Belgium, Chile, [Colombia], [Costa Rica], Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Holland, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Korea, [Latvia], [Lithuania], Luxembourg, Mexico, N Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland |
BRICS+ | Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Argentina |
Non-OECD | [Bulgaria], [Croatia], [Peru], [Romania] |
Dynamic Asia | Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, H.Kong SAR, Indonesia, Philippines |
Trade zones | Eastern/Central Europe, Africa & Middle East,Latin America, ROW |
Global Linkages - mGEM Macro Model
The "connectedness" of a global economic model determines the extent of spillovers of national
economic/policy "shocks".The various international "transmission mechanisms" in mGEM include:
Type | Linkage Detail |
---|---|
Trade | 53 Country/Zone Trade Matrix(Goods & Services) |
Financial | Benchmark Bond Yields - US/Global Drivers |
Liquidity | Impacts "Risk-On" Assets (Equity, Property) |
finGEM-Global Finance/Liquidity Model
Quantify Portfolio Risk with finGEM
Global liquidity is a key driver of national economic activity, credit availability & asset prices - it will often amplify national business cycles. Using finGEM we are able
to explore Financial-Macroeconomic- linkages via macro scenario analysis & capture the effects on typical investment Portfolios (eg 60:40-Equity:Bonds)
Macro-Financial Linkages
(Global) credit flows and refinancing flows are crucial to the operation of a modern macroeconomy, particularly given the inexorable rise in global debt levels since the 1980s.
Equally, the macro growth prospects of national economies are crucial for the investor/creditor confidence in debt sustainability & solvency concerns.
Given the legacy of the GFC its essential for prudential investors & wealth managers to be aware of risks
in either domain.
Global Liquidity Drivers
Fund Managers can explore/quantify potential fund risk from key national/global macro & environmental/ESG risks & threats via the Portfolio interrogation form to generate a dynamic, Esg rating to 2050.
MEF can also conduct "GreenTech shocks" to explore technology (eg CCS) and policy (Carbon price) shocks impacting trajectories toward net zero carbon & related winners/losers.
eGEM-Global GHG Emissions Model
Quantify Industry Emissions with eGEM & iGEM
Combining the Global Industry sector model iGEM and global emissions
module eGEM allows MEF to model "bottom-up" GHG emissions that account for the
industry-mix of output - thereby, more precisely capturing the environmental impacts of global macro/tech shocks. Deviations of
individual firms from Industry Sector Carbon Intensity budgets can also be identified as well as possible shifts in those sectoral budgets
as global economic scenarios are war-gamed.
Industry-Emissions Linkages
The iGEM model allows the feed-through of mGEM global/national shocks to 12 industrial sectors (ISIC Rev. 4) across most/all of the major economies covered by mGEM.
This in turn can then generate a "bottom-up" derivation of National emissions from national industrial sectors using the eGEM emissions model.
Energy producing Nations (Australia, Canada, US) will tend to have higher onshore emissions than "offshoring" piers.
Industrial Sector Coverage - iGEM Model
iGEM Coverage: ISIC4 Industrial Sectors |
---|
Agriculture, forestry and fishing |
Energy |
Manufacturing |
Construction |
Services - of which: |
Distribution trade, repairs; transp.; accommodation., food service activities |
Information and communication |
Financial and insurance activities |
Real estate activities |
Prof., scientific, technical activities; admin., support service activities. |
Public admin.; compulsory s.s.; education; human health |
Other service activities |
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enGEM-Global Energy Model
Explore Drivers of GHG Emissions with enGEM
Energy is the key input to economic activity and enGEM allows MEF to examine the balance of Energy Use across 4 sectors & (Electricity) Generation by 9 fuel types - at both a national & Regional/Global level.
Crucial for meeting 2050 emissions targets are: (i) wider Electricity usage (ii) cleaner Electricity generation. MEF can impose official
forecasts for Energy Use and Generation to 2050 as a baseline and then investigate deviations/risks in these projections due to (Global) macroeconomic or GreenTech shocks.
Energy Use/Generation by Sector - enGEM Model
Energy Use Sector | Electricity Generation by Fuel.. | ..of which: Renewables | |
---|---|---|---|
Residential | Liquid/Oil | Wind | |
Industrial | Coal | Solar | |
Commercial | Natural Gas | Geothermal | |
Transport | Nuclear | Hydro | |
[Renewables].. | Other |
Countries/Zones Covered - enGEM Model
Country | Region |
---|---|
US | Australia/New Zealand |
Canada | Europe |
Mexico | Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia |
Brazil | Other Non-OECD Asia |
Japan | Other Central/South America |
South Korea | Middle East |
China | Africa |
India | World |
Russia |