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Identify & Quantify
Macro-Energy-ESG Risk

How? - MEF Global Models & Apps

Manchester Economic Forecasting

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mGEM-Global Macroeconomic Model

Explore Known-Unknowns with mGEM
MEF's core model is mGEM but it has been extended with specialist add-on modules for Industrial Sectors (iGEM), Energy Use/Generation (enGEM), GHG emissions (eGEM) and Portfolio returns/ESG (finGEM) and Global Liquidity(gliGEM). Some users will be only interested in quantifying (Global) macroeconomic risks but the add-on modules allow this to extend to scenario analysis across Industry-mix, Energy, GHG Emissions and Finance/Liquidity flows.
Zone Coverage
G7 US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, UK
Other OECD Australia, Austria, Belgium, Chile, [Colombia], [Costa Rica], Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Holland, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Korea, [Latvia], [Lithuania], Luxembourg, Mexico, N Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland
BRICS+ Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Argentina
Non-OECD [Bulgaria], [Croatia], [Peru], [Romania]
Dynamic Asia Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, H.Kong SAR, Indonesia, Philippines
Trade zones Eastern/Central Europe, Africa & Middle East,Latin America, ROW
The "connectedness" of a global economic model determines the extent of spillovers of national economic/policy "shocks".The various international "transmission mechanisms" in mGEM include:

Type Linkage Detail
Trade 53 Country/Zone Trade Matrix(Goods & Services)
Financial Benchmark Bond Yields - US/Global Drivers
Liquidity Impacts "Risk-On" Assets (Equity, Property)
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finGEM-Global Finance/Liquidity Model

Quantify Portfolio Risk with finGEM
Global liquidity is a key driver of national economic activity, credit availability & asset prices - it will often amplify national business cycles. Using finGEM we are able to explore Financial-Macroeconomic- linkages via macro scenario analysis & capture the effects on typical investment Portfolios (eg 60:40-Equity:Bonds)
(Global) credit flows and refinancing flows are crucial to the operation of a modern macroeconomy, particularly given the inexorable rise in global debt levels since the 1980s. Equally, the macro growth prospects of national economies are crucial for the investor/creditor confidence in debt sustainability & solvency concerns. Given the legacy of the GFC its essential for prudential investors & wealth managers to be aware of risks in either domain.
Fund Managers can explore/quantify potential fund risk from key national/global macro & environmental/ESG risks & threats via the Portfolio interrogation form to generate a dynamic, Esg rating to 2050. MEF can also conduct "GreenTech shocks" to explore technology (eg CCS) and policy (Carbon price) shocks impacting trajectories toward net zero carbon & related winners/losers.
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eGEM-Global GHG Emissions Model

Quantify Industry Emissions with eGEM & iGEM
Combining the Global Industry sector model iGEM and global emissions module eGEM allows MEF to model "bottom-up" GHG emissions that account for the industry-mix of output - thereby, more precisely capturing the environmental impacts of global macro/tech shocks. Deviations of individual firms from Industry Sector Carbon Intensity budgets can also be identified as well as possible shifts in those sectoral budgets as global economic scenarios are war-gamed.
The iGEM model allows the feed-through of mGEM global/national shocks to 12 industrial sectors (ISIC Rev. 4) across most/all of the major economies covered by mGEM. This in turn can then generate a "bottom-up" derivation of National emissions from national industrial sectors using the eGEM emissions model. Energy producing Nations (Australia, Canada, US) will tend to have higher onshore emissions than "offshoring" piers.
iGEM Coverage: ISIC4 Industrial Sectors
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Energy
Manufacturing
Construction
Services - of which:
Distribution trade, repairs; transp.; accommodation., food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Prof., scientific, technical activities; admin., support service activities.
Public admin.; compulsory s.s.; education; human health
Other service activities
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enGEM-Global Energy Model

Explore Drivers of GHG Emissions with enGEM
Energy is the key input to economic activity and enGEM allows MEF to examine the balance of Energy Use across 4 sectors & (Electricity) Generation by 9 fuel types - at both a national & Regional/Global level. Crucial for meeting 2050 emissions targets are: (i) wider Electricity usage (ii) cleaner Electricity generation. MEF can impose official forecasts for Energy Use and Generation to 2050 as a baseline and then investigate deviations/risks in these projections due to (Global) macroeconomic or GreenTech shocks.
Energy Use Sector    Electricity Generation by Fuel....of which: Renewables
Residential    Liquid/OilWind
Industrial    CoalSolar
Commercial    Natural GasGeothermal
Transport    NuclearHydro
    [Renewables]..Other
Country Region
US Australia/New Zealand
Canada Europe
Mexico Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
Brazil Other Non-OECD Asia
Japan Other Central/South America
South Korea Middle East
China Africa
India World
Russia